IPL 2022: KKR’s odds of qualifying rise to nearly 19%, SRH’s odds drop to under 13% – All playoff possibilities in 11 points | Cricket News

With the penultimate week of IPL 2022 coming to an end, there are only 9 matches left to play in the Championship Stage, but this also translates to 512 possible outcome combinations.
TOI examines each of these possibilities to calculate the odds of individual teams qualifying for the playoffs. Although MI and CSK can no longer qualify for the knockout stage, as on Sunday morning May 15, three of the top four places are still open. So far, GT are the only team to qualify for the playoffs, while after Saturday’s victory, KKR clings to their chances of qualifying for the next tier. Here’s what the possibilities look like:
* Although there are still two games to play, MI are not in the calculation for a playoff spot
* CSK is also in the same boat. Two more matches but no chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
* KKR doubled its chances of making the top four, with its likelihood of making the playoffs rising from 9.4% on Friday to 18.8% after Saturday’s win over SRH. At best, they can finish third in the points table, but they will share that spot with four to six teams. At worst they will finish eighth after the championship phase on the points table
*DC’s chances of reaching the top four spots have improved slightly to 50%, but at best they can hope for a joint second spot that they’ll share with three to four teams.
*PBKS equals DC step by step and their chances of making the top four have also improved to 50%. Like DC PBKS, he can no longer top the leaderboard, as his best chance is now joint second position shared with three to four other contenders.
* SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four have been reduced to 12.5% ​​after their loss to KKR on Saturday. Of all the teams, they now have the lowest chance of qualifying
*RCB’s chances of advancing to one of the top four spots improved slightly to 81.3%. They can no longer be at the top of the points table either. At best, they can be second – a spot they’ll share with three to four teams
*RR has a 93.8% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points. Their best chance is a joint first place that they can share with two or three teams. At worst, they can fall as low as fifth place
*LSG’s trying week continues. It’s their first IPL season and they could be sure to reach the top three in points. They can be conjoined first with three teams, conjoined second with up to four teams, and conjoined third with up to three teams.
* GT, also in its first IPL season, remains the only team that has assured qualification and can do no worse than a three-way tie for first place in which it finishes third on net run rate
* In short, bet on GT, LSG, RR and RCB to reach the playoffs, with PBKS and DC having a relatively low chance of displacing RR or RCB in the playoff race. KKR and SRH are still in the fray, but with a lower mathematical probability.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 512 possible outcome combinations with 9 matches remaining. We assumed that for a given match, each side’s chances of winning were equal. We then looked at how many combinations put each team in one of the top four spots by points. This gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 512 possible outcome combinations, RR finishes first through fourth on points in 480 combinations. This translates to a 93.8% chance. We don’t consider net run rates or “no hits” because it’s impossible to predict them in advance.

Check back for our updated predictions on Monday (May 16) morning, which will take into account the results of Sunday’s matches.


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